Preparing your business for an earthquake

Record date: 03/28/23
Air date: 04/19/23

Earthquakes are some of the most disruptive natural phenomena we face due to both their unpredictability and their potential for wide-scale damage and injury. Recent events in Turkey and Syria dominated headlines, so we thought it was a good time to talk with Jimmy Durkin, the natural hazard specialist for the U.S. representing Zurich Resilience Solutions.

Guest:

Jimmy Durkin
Senior Principal Risk Engineering • Risk Engineering Technical Operations
Zurich North America

Jimmy Durkin is a Senior Principal Risk Engineer with Zurich Resilience Solutions. Jimmy joined Zurich June 2013 as a member of the Risk Engineering Training Program. Originally coming from an educational background focused in civil and structural engineering, Jimmy contributes insights on a variety of property loss-prevention concerns, including natural hazards and fire-exposed risks.

Jimmy’s focus at Zurich Resilience Solutions is now centered around natural hazards, where he provides technical support in the organization’s understanding of natural hazard-exposed risks. Specific areas of focus for Jimmy include improving building resilience to wind, wind-driven rain, floods, storm surge, wildfire and hail. He has experience evaluating property resilience through project plan review of building systems, onsite visits of ongoing construction projects and existing buildings, and post-natural catastrophe event loss reviews.

Jimmy’s other responsibilities at Zurich have included providing onsite property risk assessments to identify loss potential from physical hazards such as fire and explosion, natural hazards, business interruption exposures, and development of customer-focused risk improvement actions to assist in mitigating risk through enhancement of physical protection and human element programs. Jimmy is also a consistent contributor as an instructor at training events offered by Zurich Resilience Solutions to customers, Risk Engineering staff, underwriters, brokers and other business partners.

Host:

Stephani Gordon
Executive Employee Communications Business Partner
Zurich North America

As part of the Zurich North America Communications team, Stephani Gordon finds and shares stories by asking questions that connect people with ideas to pique curiosity, broaden awareness and create communities. Fondly considered a compassionate interrogator, she has coached executive communications for the CEOs of Zurich North America and Zurich Canada, lead C-suite video productions and connected employees with corporate strategy through storytelling and engagement. In addition to hosting this podcast, she unabashedly admits to spending too much time on TikTok in the guise of “anthropological study.”

Episode Transcript:

STEPHANI GORDON: Hi, my name's Stephani Gordon. I'm one of your co-hosts for the Zurich North America Future of Risk podcast. Today, we're going to talk about earthquakes. Earthquakes are truly among some of the most disruptive natural phenomena we face due to both their unpredictability and their potential for wide-scale damage and injury. They've also been in the news a lot lately with everything that's happened in Turkey and Syria. So, we thought we'd take a little time to talk with Jimmy Durkin, who's the “natural hazard specialist” for the U.S. representing Zurich Resilience Solutions, which is also known as ZRS. So, Jimmy, welcome. Thank you so much for coming to share your expertise and your thoughts on this really timely topic with us.

JIMMY DURKIN: Great. Thank you, Stephani. I appreciate you having me here.

GORDON:, In the intro, I mentioned that the Turkey, Syria earthquakes have been a lot in the news lately. But we know there are also other areas of the world that are very susceptible to quake risk. Can you talk a little bit about some of the places that we see as being most susceptible in the world?

DURKIN: When it comes to earthquakes, as many of us have experienced throughout our lives, really a lot of the earth is in a seismically prone region. When it comes to history, the most seismically active regions are found around the rims of the Pacific Ocean and the region we know as the “Ring of Fire.” This area includes a huge stretch of land across multiple continents, including the Americas, Asia, and a lot of Western Pacific Islands. This “Ring of Fire” includes the West Coast of the U.S., so California, Washington, Oregon … Canada [and] Mexico as well, and their west coasts. So, a lot of the areas that we are very familiar with when it comes to seismic activity here locally in the United States. Historically speaking, over 80% of the world's earthquake activity has actually occurred in this wide region. Additionally, over two-thirds of the world's volcanoes are actually located in this region as well, of course, leading to that name “Ring of Fire.” Although this is such a huge area that accounts for a lot of the historically recorded seismic activity, there are a lot of other areas around the world that are exposed to earthquake risk. This includes locations around what we call the Alpide Earthquake Belt, which actually includes those regions of Turkey and Syria, that experience those devastating earthquakes in February, as well as other very seismically active regions such as the Mediterranean and the Himalayas. Focusing on the U.S.A. just a little bit, we also know that seismic activity is an active concern among many regions of the country beyond just the West Coast and the areas where we traditionally associate earthquakes with the country.

GORDON: That surprises me.

DURKIN: Yeah, it's really interesting to see how widespread the seismic risk is across the U.S. and there's been several devastating earthquakes that have occurred historically speaking, in the middle of the country, in areas like Missouri, as well as on the East Coast in Charleston, South Carolina specifically. We have the New Madrid Seismic Zone, which again, is centered in Missouri as well as many coastal faults up and down the East Coast, which do lead to earthquakes. Many of us have actually probably experienced an earthquake in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic going back to 2011 with an event that originated in central Virginia and caused damages and was felt up and down the East Coast. Actually, that earthquake led to damages to the Washington Monument that led to it being closed to the public for over three years. So really our earthquake-exposed region is probably far broader than many of us think.

GORDON: I had no idea and I did not actually remember that. So, it's really interesting. Just for comparison, when you talk about the quake-prone regions in the U.S., for instance, do we see earthquakes of the same magnitude like we saw in Turkey and Syria? Does it vary based on where you are in the world? Is that a thing?

DURKIN: So, frequency and magnitude of the earthquakes are typically experienced in regions and are some of the major factors that we consider when we think of an area as a high-hazard earthquake risk. The likelihood that a higher magnitude earthquake occurs is certainly far greater in regions such as Turkey and Syria, where those events happen, as well as other areas like California. Of course, there is going to be a really long gap of time between when these major events occur. So that tends to be what allows for a lot of us to maybe stop thinking about some of these seismically prone regions for being as active as what they truly can be. That is not to say that major earthquake events cannot happen in some of the less active seismic regions. Again, going back to those two examples of Charleston, South Carolina and that New Madrid seismic zone in Missouri, both have experienced major high magnitude events, but they occurred in the 1800s when there was a much less densely populated area. A far different world than we live in today.

GORDON: Right. So, having said that, it's interesting because things like wildfires, tornadoes, hurricanes … a lot of the natural disasters that we know have seasons. To some degree you can at least predict what hurricane season is. You don't always know if you're going to get one or how many or how big … that kind of thing, but at least it's on our radar. Is there any kind of a similar way to predict an earthquake? Especially when the gap in time can be so extensive like you said.

DURKIN: Great question. And I think this is something that really influences the way we think and behave as it pertains to earthquakes. Simply put, there's currently no scientific means to predict an earthquake. It's not possible for us to know when an earthquake will occur, where it might strike and the potential magnitude or strength of that event. There's no notable scientific progress right now either that would really suggest that we are going to be able to predict earthquakes in the near-term future. While we can't really predict when an earthquake will occur, there are scientific and statistical models that have allowed us to really understand — relatively speaking — when, where and what is the likelihood a specific region experiences a certain magnitude earthquake over an extended period of time. This by no means replaces the precision of a weather forecast, which we benefit from when it comes to preparing for other natural hazards like you mentioned tornadoes… wildfires. These are all events we can predict their behavior a bit more, reasonably speaking, using the technology available to us. So, we shouldn't be expecting the weather person to really be providing us earthquake predictions anytime soon. Something similar that we might be aware of, or maybe spoke with somebody a little more elderly in the past, or people that we have suggested that they can predict an earthquake possibly by feeling an ache in their bones or similar ailments like that. These are common personal anecdotes that people might relate to predicting upcoming seismic events. Sometimes those predictions might even come true. That is not to suggest these are reasonable ways to actually predict an earthquake. So, if somebody's suggesting they're feeling a little off that day and there might be an earthquake, they might be right. But I would not rely on them to be predicting earthquakes for the future either.

GORDON: [Laugh] I think that's a fair point. We'll take it with a grain of salt.

DURKIN: [Laugh] Sometimes you just feel it in your bones, but your bones might be wrong, too.

GORDON: Fair enough. So, if you can't predict an earthquake, the best really that someone can do is try to mitigate risk in advance and then have a response plan. So, can you talk a little bit about things that businesses can do? Obviously, this is going to vary based on your proximity to an area that could be more prone to quake. What do businesses do to mitigate?

DURKIN: It’s like you said, since we cannot predict when earthquakes are going to occur. Our efforts are always going to be best left mitigating for the potential effects of these hazards and being prepared should the event actually occur. It's an eventuality that we should be ready for in these regions. If we live or travel in the earthquake regions, we should always be prepared for the potential that this event is going to happen. Truthfully speaking, mitigation is all going to begin with the design of structures that are built to modern seismic design codes. In the U.S.A. and many other regions of the world, modern codes are the backbone that's going to support structures after an initial seismic event occurs. These modern codes are put forth with life safety in mind and they help to effectively limit the likelihood that a building experiences a catastrophic structural collapse during what would be considered a design-level earthquake for that code. Although a building may still be left uninhabitable following a major event and at risk for failure should future earthquakes occur, we know that there's a far greater likelihood that a structure designed to modern seismic codes will not experience a catastrophic failure during these events. We know from our history of recently experienced earthquakes that code advancements over the years have been a major factor in reducing the overall casualties and property damages experienced during these events. Besides designing and constructing these buildings to modernize codes, building owners can also make further considerations at their site that will help limit the risk of earthquake damages, both during and after that event. These are common recommendations made by Zurich ZRS Risk Engineers that support these efforts, including the installation of seismic shutoff valves that will allow for gas lines to automatically close during an earthquake. These low-cost installations are proven to reduce the risk of devastating fire or explosions occurring inside a building after an earthquake is first felt. Additionally, business owners can consider installation of seismic bracing and flexible piping systems that allow these systems that contain water to shake without failure, limiting the risk of equipment toppling and the subsequent water damage or sprinkler systems impairments that can be common after even lighter seismic events. These are all very low-cost, actually implementable improvements that our customers make day in and day out and help limit the damages that they might experience should an earthquake occur.

GORDON: That's really interesting. I had no idea you could actually construct pipes that could have the flexibility to withstand quaking like that. Is that fairly common for buildings to do that? Is this just something I don't know because I wouldn't be in that industry.

DURKIN: So sometimes the differences are very, very subtle and hard to pick up if you're not in the industry or looking for these types of details like somebody who might live in the seismic zones kind of pick up day in and day out. A common example, Stephani, would be the connection that is made between, let's say a kitchen refrigerator or another appliance that's going to utilize water in the actual water line. By providing a more flexible, plastic-type of tubing versus rigid, like a steel or harder plastic line that might fail during that earthquake. A flexible line can shake, possibly not rupture during that earthquake and then systems can be restored to service as usual, hopefully avoiding a lot of water damage following the event. There are so many systems in a building that utilize water that there are a lot of opportunities to provide those connections and reduce the risk of that subsequent water damage that we know is very, very common after an earthquake.

GORDON: So, I guess you're helping me to paint a different picture in my mind of what this can look like because, like probably a lot of other people, what I personally know about earthquakes is just what I see in the news, which is toppled buildings or crumbled buildings. But you're actually talking about things that — were there an event that's not so devastating that everything collapses — this is helping to protect businesses and keep them relatively intact, right?

DURKIN: Absolutely. And you think of regions like California; many people experience earthquakes day in and day out there and they don't think twice about them. It's a way of life. Earthquakes come in many shapes and different sizes. You know, we've referenced terms like magnitude, which is a reflection of the strength or intensity of the earthquake itself. Lower magnitude earthquakes can result in damages. Those damages may not be the structural collapse that we see from these devastating events like those in Turkey and Syria, but they could be utility disruptions, water damages, fire following earthquakes, or issues with processing lines that could have possibly been avoided should these additional considerations have been made to those systems themselves. These are exactly the types of areas where our engineers can have influence working with our customers and supporting real improvement actions and opportunities that can be completed onsite without having to go back and redesign the whole building.

GORDON: I'm really glad that you mentioned infrastructure because it made me think of another question, which is, sometimes you might not have a business that's really a so much traditional brick and mortar footprint. They could be in other industries and not like a hospital or a school or that kind of thing. They obviously face risk as well, and building presence being one of them. But what it's making me think of is other disruptions as you mentioned: infrastructure, so electricity, travel, communication, all those kind of things. Do the risks and the mitigating strategies look different for them?

DURKIN: Absolutely. There's going to be another whole set of separate considerations that types of companies or businesses that don't operate in that traditional brick and mortar sense are going to have to have in place as part of their business continuity/business resilience plans when it comes to planning for these earthquake events. Even without a structural presence in an earthquake zone, all businesses should really begin their considerations by understanding whether their own employees and customers could be exposed to earthquakes. Businesses can proactively support their own staff who live in these zones by sharing relevant information on the hazard, particularly when it comes to how they can better prepare themselves, their homes, their families, should one of these earthquakes occur. Maybe even businesses can help their own staff who live in the earthquake zones by providing them with essentials like "go bags" and other low-cost earthquake preparedness items that could then be available at their residences, again, ready to go should an earthquake happen. We always know that all businesses are going to be better prepared to respond to these types of events when their staff and employees are all better prepared themselves to respond to support their own families and then ideally return back to work when conditions allow for it. Besides helping their own staff prepare, all businesses really should be aware of their network of operations and how it interacts with their overall business resilience planning. A business might rely on multiple suppliers, data center services or other operations or aspects of a supply chain that operate within some sort of earthquake-exposed region. In our highly globalized world, we know that a business can easily feel the local effects to their operations of an earthquake, even if that earthquake actually occurred somewhere halfway around the world.

GORDON: We learned a lot about supply chain, right?

DURKIN: Yeah, absolutely. A lot of the time, unfortunately, Stephani, these supply chain vulnerabilities do not surface themselves until after these events occur. Again, I think this is an area where our engineers really excel, especially those who have experience in the business resilience fields and asking those deep questions — “Hey, where’s your exposure around the globe?” — knowing that the natural hazards we know and prepare for here are very different than what they might be preparing for over there.

GORDON: So there's mitigation, right? And then there's having a response plan in place, and is that kind of what you're referencing? If something does happen, we all have to have a plan and we need to know what it is and people need to be aware enough to execute it, right?

DURKIN: Absolutely. Going back to a key point that we brought up earlier and continue to reiterate, we cannot predict these events, right? So, any earthquake response plan is critical to making sure people and businesses are going to be ready to act should that quake occur. This plan is really going to start with making sure that emergency supplies are on hand. Whether that's at a business or at a personal residence. Some of those essential supplies could be First Aid kits, water, radios, batteries, and other essential supplies. I referenced "go bags" earlier. It's very easy to acquire these things preassemble [them], and again [they’re] “ready to go” should you have to turn to it in the event [of an earthquake]. We're not going to know when an earthquake might occur. It's not going to be possible necessarily to prepare our buildings for these events. We have to focus on preparing ourselves. When it comes to responding to an earthquake after these events happen, that's when an earthquake response plan should really be tailored to the operations on the site and how people are going to respond and return to their businesses after these events occur. So, reducing the risk of additional damages following an earthquake is one of the primary considerations as people start to return to their businesses or return to their homes. People returning to homes of businesses should be careful to reenter any structure. Any structure can be showing signs of structural damages following an earthquake. We need to be very careful not to enter structures that do show obvious signs of damages. Really, property owners should be prudent to have structural engineers come on site and assess any potential concerns before deciding that a building is ready to be reinhabited. Many earthquakes are followed by powerful aftershocks that lead to further structural damages and possible collapse of structures, and that includes structures that are designed to modern seismic codes. Additionally, home and building owners need to be aware of the common risks associated with fire and or water damage after earthquakes. We talked about some of those risks earlier, but people should be mindful of the signs such as natural gas and propane. These systems, they have smells. We can be aware of those smells if you know it. Notice that that's a sign not to occupy the property. Contact the utility providers and likely the fire department as well to help you respond safely. Additionally, property owners should probably be aware of how to safely disconnect these services or who they have to contact in order to disconnect these services, should there be concerns following an earthquake event.

GORDON: It's a lot to think about. Thank you for sharing your experience and your thoughts on that. A different line of question now: Are there any indications that climate change is having any impact on either the frequency or severity of earthquakes? Any correlation that you guys are seeing or hearing or thinking about?

DURKIN: Now, this is a very much a developing field. So much so that I probably don't have too much to say concretely on it today, Stephani. But there are some early indicators that scientists are making some links between climate change — specifically the impacts of sea level rise and glacier ice melt — the effects that could have on seismic activity. As ice melts, we're essentially putting more weight onto the tectonic plates of the ocean. How this weight causes changes to those plates, fault lines and possible seismic activity … we're not really sure right now. I'm sure this [is a] scenario where scientists will continue to research and fill out our understanding going forward. But from a theoretical perspective, there are some links that are being looked into right now between climate change and earthquakes.

GORDON: That's very interesting, as you said, developing information. So then, what about the phenomenon of man-made earthquakes? Can you touch on that topic a little bit?

DURKIN: Yeah, certainly. These can be the result of activities that disrupt groundwater tables. Common examples of activities that tend to disrupt groundwater tables include fracking, mining and wastewater disposal, which is often linked to oil and gas industries, as well as the creation and upkeep of dams and reservoirs which support drinking water systems, power supplies and other key infrastructure that we rely on as a society. Anytime we are disrupting the groundwater table and basically the many layers of earth that are formed below us, we can cause some man-made earthquakes, including in areas that we don't typically expect earthquakes such as Oklahoma, where there's been a huge uptick in these man-made earthquakes in recent years.

GORDON: So, Jimmy, one last question: You mentioned this at the very beginning and it made me realize that we can be prepared for the space that we live in. We can choose where to build a house or a business, that kind of thing. But we also travel. We travel the globe and I'm not necessarily going to know if I'm heading towards someplace that is potentially earthquake-prone. But now I kind of feel like that needs to be something that I look into. So, do you have any advice for people who travel in terms of finding out if their destination might be susceptible to earthquakes and how they could prepare? Because I don't know if my "go bag’s" going to fit in my suitcase.

DURKIN: No, and I don't think you'll want to pay the additional carry-on fees or try to get it through TSA either, depending on what's inside.

GORDON:  Right, that's going to ask some questions.

DURKIN: More harm than it's worth likely bringing the "go bag" with you. But when it comes to how you want to prepare Stephani, there are a lot of resources online that we can all tap into as we're preparing for our travel. When it comes to the earthquake-prone areas, we've mentioned some of them already today. Like we had brought up earlier, it's a wide, wide section of the world, including many very fantastic, common travel destinations. When it comes to earthquake and understanding “Is an area I'm traveling to exposed to earthquakes?” I suggest doing some searching online. Typically, the U.S. Department of State and the local U.S. embassy for the place you are traveling to will offer lots of guidance on the various concerns you might have traveling there, whether those concerns are tied to natural hazards — including earthquakes —safety in terms of getting around and being in the country, ongoing political unrest and a wide array of information all about the place you're traveling to from the perspective [of] the US Department of State and how they suggest you stay safe while you're out there. So, if we were to look into this as I'm planning a trip to Japan, let's say, I would look up the U.S. local embassy in Japan and there is a large page that goes over the hazard of earthquakes, how Japan as a country prepares for them, information on how buildings are built in the codes that they are built to, which places Japan in a good place and being prepared to mitigate for the effects of earthquakes. But also speaking on the fact that Japan has experienced significant earthquakes, including going back just over 12 years ago — actually we’re just about at the anniversary of the major Fukushima earthquake in Japan — there is loads of information on that specific website as how you as a traveler would prepare. Who you would want to contact should one of these events occur? What resources might be offered to you as a traveler in Japan, either through the local embassy of the United States or other Japanese-based government resources? Again, searching this online through the Department of State and the local embassy is probably going to be your best go-to resource, at least as an American traveling, but really anybody of course can take advantage of those sorts of online resources.

GORDON: Thank you for sharing that. That's a fascinating step in trip planning that I have to be honest, I have not taken in the past, but that's going to be part of my plan going forward. I appreciate you sharing that.

DURKIN: Certainly. I will say, just in terms of general advice, should you experience an earthquake, you are going to have to focus on finding shelter. Whether it's inside of the building — should you already be in one, shielding your body from possible falling or flying debris coming off of the ceilings, walls, things like wall hangings — like paintings or artwork — ceiling-hung light fixtures, loose large furniture like dressers. These are the types of things that are going to fall during an earthquake and possibly hurt you if you're in that scenario. You’re best suited sheltering in place should you be in a building during an earthquake. But if you happen to be outside while one is occurring, you're going to want to try to move to an open area. Stay away from structures, whether that's buildings, other structures or monuments, utility infrastructure, trees, large objects that surround you — anything that you would want to be clear of the path of should it fail. But again, if you happen to be outside, don't go into a building, stay out. Just stay clear of your surroundings as best you can safely during that event.

GORDON: So many topics we have covered today that have just not been on my radar based on the geography of where I live or where I've traveled. So, this is a fascinating conversation. Thank you so much Jimmy for taking the time to join us and to share your expertise, your thoughts, your experience on this. I really enjoyed talking with you.

DURKIN: Absolutely. Thank you very much for the time, Stephani.

GORDON: And to our Future of Risk podcast listeners, thank you for joining us. We hope you found this conversation to be interesting for you and relevant as well. And we look forward to bringing you more great content in the future. Thank you.